In its second advance estimate released ahead of the harvesting season, the government has forecasted a record wheat output of 112.01 million tonnes for the 2023-24 crop year (July-June), surpassing the previous year’s achievement.
The projected wheat production represents a substantial increase of 1.46 million tonnes compared to the record set in the 2022-23 crop year, marking a significant milestone for the agricultural sector.
With wheat, the primary rabi (winter) crop, ready for harvest, procurement activities are set to commence in the upcoming months across various states. The government has set a conservative procurement target of 30-32 million tonnes for the 2024-25 rabi marketing season (March-April), underscoring its commitment to supporting farmers. Wheat procurement, conducted at a minimum support price (MSP) of Rs 2,275 per quintal, is facilitated by central and state agencies.
However, projections for other rabi crops paint a mixed picture. While rabi rice production is expected to decrease to 12.35 million tonnes compared to the previous year’s 15 million tonnes, rabi maize production is also anticipated to decline to 9.75 million tonnes.
On a positive note, jowar production is estimated to slightly increase to 2.48 million tonnes, while lentil production is forecasted to rise to 1.63 million tonnes for the rabi season of the 2023-24 crop year.
Among oilseeds, rapeseed/mustard production is projected to reach 12.69 million tonnes, contributing to a total rabi oilseeds production of 13.75 million tonnes. However, this represents a slight decrease from the previous year’s figure of 14.15 million tonnes.
Overall, rabi foodgrains output is expected to marginally decline to 155.16 million tonnes in the 2023-24 crop year, compared to 157.84 million tonnes in the previous season.
In addition to rabi production estimates, the agriculture ministry also provided insights into kharif foodgrains production for the 2023-24 crop year. Key highlights include a projected kharif rice output of 111.45 million tonnes, tur output matching last year’s levels at 3.33 million tonnes, and soyabean production reaching 22.72 million tonnes.
Furthermore, cotton production is estimated at 32.31 million bales, while sugarcane production is forecasted to reach 446.43 million tonnes.
While these estimates provide valuable insights into the agricultural landscape, they remain subject to change based on factors such as crop cutting experiments (CCEs) and ongoing data compilation processes. The ministry will continue to refine its projections through successive estimates as more accurate yield data becomes available, culminating in the final projections.
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